62% Of TikTokers Don’t Believe US TikTok Ban Will Push Through: Poll

Posted: May 27, 2024

A majority of US TikTok creators don’t believe the platform will be banned within a year, according to a new survey shared exclusively with WIRED. Despite recent legislation threatening the app’s future in the US, most creators have not seen brands shift their marketing budgets away from TikTok. This sentiment reflects the ongoing debate surrounding the potential TikTok US ban.

Fohr, an influencer marketing platform, surveyed US-based TikTok creators with at least 10,000 followers to provide a TikTok ban update. Among the 200 respondents, 62 percent didn’t think TikTok would be banned by 2025, while 38 percent believed it would be. Half of the respondents rely on influencing as their sole income source.

Creators’ skepticism about a potential TikTok ban in the US may stem from previous unsuccessful attempts by the Trump administration and Congress to regulate the app. TikTok’s popularity in the US has only grown, causing concern in Silicon Valley. Some creators think a ban is unlikely due to the complexity of selling TikTok to American investors, a solution TikTok deems nearly impossible.

An anonymous creator expressed disbelief at the situation, calling the potential ban “ridiculous” and suggesting the government has more pressing issues. Most creators, 83 percent, reported their sponsorships to remain unaffected, though 7 percent experienced paused or canceled campaigns, and 8 percent saw brands shift or consider shifting deliverables to other platforms. This indicates that US TikTok influencers continue to thrive and secure brand deals even with the looming threat of a TikTok ban.

Brands may hesitate to leave TikTok because it’s a significant avenue for product discovery, especially for small businesses. TikTok’s e-commerce feature, TikTok Shop, has gained traction, with over 11 percent of US households making purchases through it since September 2023, according to Earnest Analytics.

User engagement on TikTok has remained stable despite the new law. Sensor Tower data shows consistent app store popularity and Fohr’s survey found 60 percent of creators saw no change in video views, 28 percent saw a decline, and 10 percent reported increased engagement. These variations might result from algorithm changes, content variability, or user behavior.

US tech giants have responded to TikTok’s rise by launching similar features, like YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels. If TikTok creators leave due to uncertainty or a ban, Instagram is likely to benefit most, with 67 percent of creators seeing it as the best alternative, while 22 percent favored YouTube.

However, gaining traction on Instagram is reportedly more challenging, and the platform lacks TikTok’s Creativity Program, which pays users based on engagement metrics. Fohr’s survey highlighted a growing revenue stream through the TikTok Creative Challenge, where companies request marketing videos from creators. This type of user-generated content is a significant income source for 18 percent of creators. If TikTok is banned, American competitors may soon adopt similar initiatives.